Updated October 22, 2026. I first wrote this post in December 2022, in the middle of a long run of Federal Reserve rate increases. A lot has changed since then, so here is where the Fed stands today and what it means if you are buying, refinancing or using your home equity around Durango.

A little about me: I have lived in Durango, Colorado, for over 29 years, and my wife, Angela, and I have raised five kids here. We have enjoyed all that Durango has to offer including hiking, mountain biking, skiing, sledding, and rafting down the Animas River. Durango really is a great place to raise a family. As my children graduate high school and college and begin to enter careers and raise families of their own, I am constantly reminded of the importance of managing finances and investments, no matter what life stage you’re in.

What the Fed did in September

On September 16, 2026, the Fed’s rate-setting committee raised its benchmark short-term rate by a quarter point. It was the Fed’s first increase since 2023, and the vote was unanimous. In its official statement, the Fed said inflation “remains elevated,” while job growth and the broader economy have held up well. At his press conference, Fed Chair Warsh said inflation “is too high and has been for too long.” He also made clear he would not promise what the Fed does next.

What has happened since

Inflation picked up again in September, driven largely by a jump in gasoline prices. Minutes from the September meeting showed most Fed officials expected one more increase before the end of the year. The next decision comes on October 28, and the last meeting of the year ends December 9. Nobody, including the Fed, knows for sure what those meetings will bring, so I would be wary of anyone who tells you otherwise.

The Fed does not set your mortgage rate

This is the part most people find surprising. The Fed sets a short-term rate that banks charge each other overnight. Mortgage rates are set by the investors who buy mortgages, and they tend to follow longer-term Treasury yields and where investors think inflation is headed. So mortgage rates can rise even when the Fed is cutting, and fall even when the Fed is raising. This fall, longer-term Treasury yields have climbed, and mortgage rates have moved up with them. I explain the connection in more detail in how the Federal Reserve affects mortgage rates.

What it means if you are buying, refinancing or tapping equity

  • Buying a home: Rates can move from one day to the next, so it helps to be ready. A solid pre-approval tells you what you can borrow before you make an offer, and we can talk through when it makes sense to lock your rate. If you want a starting point, see your price range.
  • Refinancing: A refinance has to make sense on its own math, no matter what the Fed does. Here is a simple break-even test. I’m happy to run the numbers honestly, even if the answer is “wait.”
  • Using your equity: If you already have a low rate on your first mortgage, a HELOC or second mortgage may let you borrow against your equity without giving up that rate.
  • Waiting for rates to drop: No one can promise when or if that will happen. If the right home comes along and the budget works, buying now and looking at a refinance later, if rates fall and the numbers make sense, is one option worth talking through.

What I am watching next

  • The Fed’s October 28 decision and statement
  • The monthly inflation reports
  • Longer-term Treasury yields, which mortgage rates tend to follow
  • The job market

I will keep updating this post as things change. If you have questions about how any of this affects your plans, call or text me at 970-828-1610 or send me a note. I return every call the same day.